NBA Props Parlay: Locking in Overs for Butler, Sengun, Westbrook, and Harden – 16 November 2025 Edges

With the NBA slate firing up on 16 November 2025, savvy bettors have their eyes on player props that scream value – especially when bundled into a parlay that amplifies the upside without the all-or-nothing risk of team outcomes.

Our For The 3 model spots a compelling four-leg parlay on overs:

Jimmy Butler 15+ points (94% prob),

Alperen Sengun 15+ points (96%),

Russell Westbrook 10+ points (90%),

James Harden 15+ points (92%).

It's not about chasing payouts; it's maths-driven edges from consistent floors, favourable matchups, and injury tilts, all calibrated via 100k+ sims.

We'll break down each leg with the model's justification, enriched by fresh stats from ESPN and NBA.com – Butler's scorching with Golden State, Sengun's dominating for Houston, Westbrook's steady in Sacramento, and Harden's carrying the Clippers. Remember the 95% CIs (±3-4%): Variance is part of the game, but these probs stack for a high-confidence ride. Let's dive in.

Jimmy Butler Over 15 Points: 94% Lock Amid Warriors' Surge

Jimmy Butler's move to the Golden State Warriors has been a seamless fit, and his scoring floor shines bright – averaging 19.2 points per game this season, with 5.5 rebounds and 4.4 assists to boot. The model's 94% probability (±4%) for 15+ stems from his last 10 games, where he's clipped the line in 4 of 5 recent outings (e.g., 21 vs Spurs on 14 November, 28 earlier in the month), despite one 12-point blip on low volume. Weighted at 25%, this form overrides his career 18 PPG vs Pelicans, especially with New Orleans' middling defence allowing 113-120 PPG est. and Zion Williamson questionable (undisclosed, easing paths -5% adj.).

Poisson sims (mu=19.2) yield 95% over 14.5 from 100k iters, blended with normal dist. (mean=19.2/std6) at ~92%. Experts lean over on higher lines (o/u 19.5 at -130), implying strong confidence in Butler's 32-35 minutes under Steve Kerr (+5% boost). Uncertainties: Capped minutes post-soreness? Under +5%. Base it at 4% stake assuming -110 – a solid anchor for the parlay.

Alperen Sengun Over 15 Points: 96% Dominance in Rockets' Frontcourt

Houston's Alperen Sengun is a stat-stuffing machine this season, averaging 22.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 7.4 assists – numbers that scream reliability for 15+. The model's 96% prob (±3%) draws from his last 10, where he's averaged 21.4 PPG, hitting over in nearly all (e.g., 25 on 15 November vs Milwaukee, 28 prior). Weighted 25%, this trumps his lower career home avg vs Magic (13.3 over three), boosted by Orlando's absences (Christian Braun out, Moritz Wagner knee out, +10% usage adj for weakened frontcourt).

Magic's D allows 113.8 PPG (mid-tier), favourable for Sengun's interior game. Poisson (mu=22.4) hits 96% over 14.5 from 100k, normal dist. (mean=22.4/std6) ~94%. Previews like ATS.io recommend o/u 21.5 over, implying 60-70% for higher – deviated to 96% here. Low foul risk, Ime Udoka's feature (+5%) offset blowout cap (-3%). If inefficient? Under +3%. Anchor at 4% stake – high edge in a parlay booster.

Russell Westbrook Over 10 Points: 90% Floor in Kings' Starting Role

Russell Westbrook's shift to the Sacramento Kings has unlocked steady production, averaging 14.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 6.4 assists this season. The model's 90% prob (±4%) for 10+ builds on his last 10 (avg. 15.6 PPG, over in 9/10 – e.g., 16, 12, 26, 23), with the lone sub-10 (6 on 9 November) an inefficient outlier despite 33 minutes and starter role replacing Schroder (+10% usage). Weighted 25%, this overrides career 19.2 PPG vs Spurs, with recent last 5 at 13.2.

Spurs' DRTG ~112 allows 19-20 PPG to PGs (mid-tier). Poisson (mu=14.4) 91% over 9.5, normal (mean=15.6/std6.5) ~85%. Lines favour under higher (o/u 15.5 at -113), but consensus over lower. Doug Christie's feature (+5%) offset inefficiency risk (-3%). If blowout? Under +5%. Solid 4% stake in the mix.

James Harden Over 15 Points: 92% Carry for Clippers Amid Absences

James Harden remains the Clippers' engine, averaging 25.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 9.1 assists this season. The model's 92% prob (±3%) for 15+ flows from his last 10 (avg. 26.0 PPG, over in 9/10 – e.g., 41, 23, 35, 13 outlier on poor shooting), with 37 minutes and elevated usage sans Kawhi Leonard (+10% adj). Weighted 25%, this trumps career 21.9 PPG vs Celtics, recent last 5 at 12.8 overridden by role.

Celtics' DRTG ~112.1 allows 20-22 PPG to SGs, mitigated by Jayson Tatum out (Achilles, -5% adj), B2B fatigue (-3%). Poisson (mu=22 adj.) 95% over 14.5, normal (mean=26/std7.7) ~93%. Lines o/u 23.5-24.5 at -121 over, implying 55% higher – deviated to 92%. Ty Lue's lean (+5%) offset blowout (-3%). If inefficient? Under +5%. Prime 4% stake – parlay powerhouse.

Parlay Payoff: Steady Edges for Sustainable Gains

This four-leg over parlay blends high floors (90-96% probs) for a ~75% combined hit rate – not a lock, but +EV gold at 0.116. Correlate with unders like 233.5 if EV>3% (injuries curb pace). It's the quant play: Data over drama, growth over gambles.

Dive deeper with free picks at forthe3.com – or premium for custom sims.

This is educational entertainment only; no guarantees, betting's your risk.

Wager responsibly: US: 1-800-GAMBLER; UK: GamCare 0808 8020 133; international: gamblingtherapy.org.